Copy testing has been utilized by advertisers for decades to assess the quality of advertising copy. MSW’s TouchPoint™ copy testing system has been extensively validated, showing that test results on key metrics are predictive of subsequent sales results from airing the tested advertising. A partnership between MSW and predictive marketing analytics firm Keen set out to assess the utility of test scores from MSW’s Insight Rabbit DIY copy-testing platform at improving predictions from Keen’s MIDA decision support system.

The MIDA (Marketing Investment Decision Analysis) platform is designed to help marketers decide how to invest in marketing activities. MIDA users can develop optimized investment scenarios to meet specific business objectives such as hitting revenue targets or meeting budget constraints. It does this by applying a Bayesian modeling approach to a wide range of a brand’s historical marketing and performance data.

Could the use of copy quality metrics improve forecasting of business outcomes and hence, be used as an input to MIDI to improve the allocation of marketing dollars? To address this question, new advertising for a major packaged food brand was selected. This brand had developed two different campaigns with different communication objectives that tied back to the brand’s strategy. The brand intended to air both campaigns concurrently.

The television ads developed for each of the two campaigns were tested using MSW Research’s Insight Rabbit Pulse Lite copy testing solution. Results are shown in the graph below.

Both ads were adequate in terms of the secondary Break Through metric which assesses the degree to which an ad leaves viewers with a memorable and branded impression. However, Copy A scored much stronger in terms of the CCPersuasion™ metric which assesses the degree to which the ad positively influences preference for the advertised brand. Prior validation studies have shown CCPersuasion to be the strongest predictor of an ad’s selling power. Copy A scored significantly above the Fair Share benchmark with an index of 161, suggesting it is a very strong piece of copy. On the other hand, Copy B indexed 113 versus the norm and would be considered slightly above average at best.

Historical performance of the brand’s television investment was measured in MIDA to quantify the expected returns on investment for an average (or benchmark) ad for the brand. Then an initial forecast was developed before the start of the campaign using this historical performance enhanced by the MSW copy test results along with planned media delivery levels.

After the campaign had been running for six months, MIDA was updated with actual sales and television campaign delivery data. As seen below, the ROI for Copy A was approximately 90% higher than would have been expected from the historical benchmark ad performance level. On the other hand, Copy B’s ROI was only about 5% higher than the benchmark expectation.

This actual performance was extremely consistent with the copy test results which suggested that Copy A was a very strong ad, and that copy B was slightly above average. This result illustrates the utility of MSW copy test scores in the a priori forecasting of investment levels through integration with decision support systems. The integration of MSW copy test scores with a decision support system like MIDA would help steer marketing dollars toward more deserving initiatives, improve forecasts and bolster in-market effectiveness of brands’ marketing programs.

Today, the Advertising Research Foundation announced that the paper “Effectiveness and Efficiency of TV’s Brand-Building Power: A Historical Review — Why the Persuasion Rating Point (PRP) Is a More Accurate Metric than the GRP” has been voted Best Practitioner Paper 2021 by the JAR Editorial Board.  Along with co-authors Frank Findley of MASB, David Stewart of Loyola Marymount University and Kelly Johnson of Disney, we at MSW Research were very honored to have our work recognized with this prestigious award.

The paper was published in the December 2020 issue of the Journal of Advertising Research.  It addresses the questions of whether television advertising is as effective as in the past and if so, how it compares with other media-platform alternatives.

The major conclusions of the study include the following:

• On a single, quality exposure basis the television ad format is as effective now as it was in the 1980s (based on copy-testing for 30-second television ads collected within the United States for typical categories with brands advertising throughout the years 1980 to 2014 using a consistent methodology, MSW Research’s CCPersuasion^TM measure).

• The rate of delivery of an ad’s selling power per GRP has slowed, requiring approximately 25% more GRPs to deliver the same brand-building power in market as it did in the 1980s.  This implies that television-channel proliferation, time-shifting technology, and simultaneous digital-media consumption (multi-screen behavior) are having an impact on the advertising viewing experience.

• This decline is mitigated, however, by a 45 percent increase in the number of households in the United States over the same time period.  Each rating point now represents many more households. So even though fewer households are now effectively reached by a given spending level on a percentage basis, this is not true on an absolute number of households basis.

• Despite a potential increase in distracted viewing, television advertising still maintains an effective frequency profile that is comparable to other media channels including digital.  All examined media types – including television – can be effective within the range of average frequencies typically deployed for them.

Every media platform has its own strengths and challenges. Although the interruptive nature of television advertising may make it more susceptible to divided attention with other media, it also provides television with one of the most immersive visual and audio experiences.

Television remains an effective media platform, and television advertising should continue to be used to maintain and grow market share. By focusing attention on the development stage, brands can improve advertisement quality to such a degree as to more than compensate for the decline in the rate of ad selling power delivery per gross rating point.

Trafficking gross rating points behind advertisements on the basis of their persuasive strength allows for the diminishing returns dictated by wearout to be managed while maximizing sales power delivered in market.  This means actively managing both quantity and quality of the advertising media plan, which can be achieved through focusing on Persuasion Rating Points (GRPs weighted by a measure of persuasion), rather than GRPs alone.

Contact us for a full reprint of the article.

Smart cookie-blocking technology led by Apple’s Intelligent Tracking Prevention (ITP) and Firefox’s Enhanced Tracking Protection (ETP) now block third-party cookies by default, and even Google’s Chrome will soon get controls that let consumers block cookies. Browser-level blocking, third-party ad-blocking apps, and new regulations like GDPR and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) are quickly relegating the old cookie to the internet dustbin.

Most digital marketing plans are built upon the use of personalized targeting enabled by cookies.  To enable these, companies will have to disclose every specific, possible use of their information by marketers.  Marketers are either going to obtain this opt-in on a narrowly defined use basis, or, form very specific consumer panels, or not pursue obtaining it at all to spare the risk involved.  One lawsuit in California for misuse could bankrupt a company.

While there are various digital techniques that do not require cookies that will be used, the consensus from those on the front lines is:

• ​Privacy first in all creative development, delivery and measurement
• ​Relevance without being personal (and creepy)
• ​Engaging targets (there are messages that you won’t have to micro-target to be relevant)
• ​Ad environments will become more important
• ​Effective reach will be a critical measure
• ​Good measurement, probabilistic models (rather than individual cookies) complemented by strong planning. (‘Everything old is new again’ stated by more than one panelist).
• ​Testing creative is a must
• ​Set a high bar for creative ads
• ​Content is where the focus will be

MSW provides an alternative to a post-cookie world…

• ​Test content before going to market
• ​Effective creative enables you to be relevant without targeting each individual
• ​Targeting research will be more critical than ever to successful creative
• ​MSW has unique measurement and analytic tools to develop your segments, targets and positioning
  • No advertising campaign can be created without a strong foundation in these three areas
  • Our probabilistic models are predictive and validated
  • Our accompanying models are build to include effective reach
  • Our models recognize various ad environments and platforms

​Contact us today and let’s talk about the implications for your brand in a Post-Cookie world.