In recent months, the headlines have been filled with news about the struggles that restaurants, particularly quick serve and fast casual, have had as a result of price inflation.  To a large extent, this can be traced to the fact that prices for food away from home continue to rise faster than prices for food at home.  In fact, figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show the current annual pace of increase being nearly 4 times higher away from home:

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consequently, a majority of restaurant operators are reporting declines both in sales and in foot traffic.  As reported by the National Restaurant Association, about 4 times more operators saw lower traffic vs those that saw higher traffic compared to a year ago.

Source:  National Restaurant Association

Another trend that has occurred in the industry since the easing of the pandemic has been a return to dining-in rather than other off-premises options.  Tracking data in the Fast Casual Restaurant category from the MSW TBSM tracking service shows that In-Store dining in June 2024 versus January 2022 has increased by nearly a quarter while all other methods have declined.

Source:  MSW TBSM Tracking Service

TBSM data also shows that these two trends are reflected in the characteristics that fast casual diners indicate are important to them in deciding among restaurant options.  Not surprisingly, price has markedly increased as an important consideration among Fast Casual diners as has location now that more diners are choosing to eat on-premises.  However, the biggest gainer is taste of the food.  So, while many diners are cutting back on how often they eat out and certainly many are looking for value, when they do eat out they are looking for food that they enjoy more than anything else.  All other considerations dropped in importance, with the biggest drops being for mobile apps, kiosks and other technology which are often tied to off-premises dining, as well as for speed & convenience as diners seem to be prioritizing an enjoyable experience at the restaurant of their choice.

Source:  MSW TBSM Tracking Service

Building on this finding, when asked their primary consideration in choosing a Fast Casual restaurant to patronize, taste of food was cited most often by a wide margin.  Price came in second followed by quality/healthfulness and location.

Source:  MSW TBSM Tracking Service

So, which Fast Casual restaurants are thriving in this environment in which many consumers are price sensitive and cutting back on dining out and yet the most important consideration, by far, is taste of the food?  Well, two of the chains that are really flying high are the chicken focused outlets Raising Cane’s and Wingstop.  Both restaurants have a very focused menu.  Raising Cane’s only offers chicken fingers (their chicken sandwich is chicken fingers on bread) and Wingstop is almost entirely focused on chicken wings (with the exception of a successful chicken sandwich that was introduced in 2022).  Neither has joined the trend of having a discount meal option but rather each focuses on doing one thing exceptionally well.

Their successes are revealed in TBSM brand preference tracking data.  In fact, their respective successes in increasing brand preference are nearly mirror images of each other, as the following charts reveal.  From 2022 to 2024, both have substantially increased First Choice preference (percent most preferred brand) and in particular have increased penetration (percent allocating at least one of five choices).

Source:  MSW TBSM Tracking Service

Source:  MSW TBSM Tracking Service

These brand preference trends are consistent with both chain’s actual business results, as each has reported very large (and similar) increases in same-store sales in 2024:

Sources:  Wingstop Press Release; CNBC

The two outlets also share some similarities when looking at the demographic segments with the highest levels of brand preference for each brand.  The following chart shows relative brand preferences (100 = overall preference level) by demographic segment.  Both brands are extremely strong among the age 18 to 34 segment; relatively weak in the Northeast (Wingstop also under-indexes in the Midwest); and stronger among those with children.  One difference, and apparent advantage, is that Raising Cane’s is substantially stronger among heavy users of Fast Casual restaurants.

Source:  MSW TBSM Tracking Service

The success of these two brands demonstrates that even in difficult times it is possible to have enormous success without resorting to value meals or a scramble for new and innovative menu items.  These two brands show that this is possible by having a great concept focused on food consumers love and executed with excellence.